Probability and Language Models

 The purpose of this chapter is to illustrate some of the basic vocabulary of probability theory. Most people who haven't seen this before will probably find the ideas odd. Rest assured that an initial investment in getting familiar (if not necessarily comfortable) with the ideas is very worthwhile.

The basics are actually very simple, but the terminology is a barrier. Once grasped, the ideas of probability are the best defence against horrid mistakes in the interpretation of data. We don't want to spread alarm and despondency, but if the quantum physicists are right, probabilistic ideas are in any case much closer to the facts than is the comforting veneer of cosy half-truths which passes for an understanding of everyday life.